Classic Car Value Prediction
#1
I am go out on a limb and throw out a prediction regarding the value of classic cars in 15-20 years. Some of you may agree or disagree with me but here is what I see happening.

The baby boomer generation has entered into their retirement years and the remaining boomers will retire over the next 15 years or so. Most of the classic owners today are probably baby boomers and generation X (with some exceptions). Most of us who own these cars probably for 2 reasons: One we love them because we grew up with these cars, and two; for the investment value of the car as it kind of balances our portfolio against stock market risk.

I know there are exceptions to what I am going to say but I tend see a lost interest in classic cars with generation Y. To them it is more about technology. With that being said, as the baby boomer's and X generations decide to sell their investment in 15-20 years there might not be a big market waiting to buy.

The law of supply and demand dictates, the greater the supply there is and the less demand to purchase equates to low values due to market saturation. And just the opposite when demand is high.

My point being is the classic car market is booming right now with the baby boomer's and gen X wanting to remember their younger years through the cars they grew up with. This is driving the demand for classic cars up and this is why we are seeing the cost of classic cars on the rise.

As the boomer's and gen X continue to age owning and maintaining the car will become too much of a burden and it will be time to sell the investment to enjoy other great things. My prediction is the market demand may not be there when that time comes thus we can see a decline in the value of classic cars.

Just a thought...









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#2
Remember the above comes from the mind of an accountant.

I would say that you have made some wise points.

My Mach 1 may not become a good return on investment or balance my portfolio but to generation Y Icon_tongue

I do know that my children will be in line to gladly inherit the Mach 1 anyway. No worries about it being forlorn without a home.
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#3
(09-20-2014, 08:04 AM)Steven Harris Wrote: Remember the above comes from the mind of an accountant.

I would say that you have made some wise points.

My Mach 1 may not become a good return on investment or balance my portfolio but to generation Y Icon_tongue

I do know that my children will be in line to gladly inherit the Mach 1 anyway. No worries about it being forlorn without a home.

From some of your previous posts I can see your children really admire (if that's the right word) the older cars. My son, for some reason, does not show the same amount of enthusiasm, if any, and that's the same for the guy I work with who is 29. This guy even mentioned to me that one day in the near future country clubs are going to be the next bubble to pop. His generation just doesn't see them as a viable place to entertain any more and I kind of believe him. The times are changing. Point being we need to keep in mind the next generation and how they may impact our futures indirectly.

So I am with you in regards to generation Y Icon_tongue now back to building Mustangs, Mach 1's and Mavericks, too!!!







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#4
MustangMike makes some good points,,the value will no doubt level off or fall somewhat, I don't believe the classics will ever disappear, I see allot of young people at car shows and they like the classics,,,most cars of today won't become very collectible because for one reason they make too many of them,,so in 40 years there will be plenty of them around,,,so I'll drive my Mach1 till the day I die,,after that I don't really care what happens to it,,my wife will probably bury me in it anyway,,LOL
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#5
(09-21-2014, 08:58 AM)seph10 Wrote: MustangMike makes some good points,,the value will no doubt level off or fall somewhat, I don't believe the classics will ever disappear, I see allot of young people at car shows and they like the classics,,,most cars of today won't become very collectible because for one reason they make too many of them,,so in 40 years there will be plenty of them around,,,so I'll drive my Mach1 till the day I die,,after that I don't really care what happens to it,,my wife will probably bury me in it anyway,,LOL

I agree the classic cars will not disappear, at least I hope not! After all, I have my father in law's 1933 Model A.
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#6
Mike I believe you are spot on. I also agree that they won't completely disappear. As there are still those out there, that rebuild the older cars, Model T's etc. It won't be the same feeding frenzy it has been over the last 40 years or so. As far as generation "Y", I don't see them giving a hoot about cars, they are far more interested in the "techno crap". If it can't be held in there hand they don't want to mess with it. If it requires manual labor forget it! A car for them, is simply a means to an end. Not the freedom machine that we feel they are, and what has driven our passion for them for roughly the last 100 years. There will still be the occasional gearheads, but the days of thousands of us at a car show are about over. I have gone to several local shows and have definitely noticed the numbers are dwindling already. So I think we're all feeling the begining of the down hill side, of our beloved hobby. SUCKS, but I think the party's almost over. Look at Nascar there numbers are also dwindling and there trying to find ways to boost the number of butts in the seats. I quess it's inevitable. That doesn't mean I have to like it! JTS 71 Mach1
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#7
(09-22-2014, 10:32 AM)JTS71 Mach1 Wrote: Mike I believe you are spot on. I also agree that they won't completely disappear. As there are still those out there, that rebuild the older cars, Model T's etc. It won't be the same feeding frenzy it has been over the last 40 years or so. As far as generation "Y", I don't see them giving a hoot about cars, they are far more interested in the "techno crap". If it can't be held in there hand they don't want to mess with it. If it requires manual labor forget it! A car for them, is simply a means to an end. Not the freedom machine that we feel they are, and what has driven our passion for them for roughly the last 100 years. There will still be the occasional gearheads, but the days of thousands of us at a car show are about over. I have gone to several local shows and have definitely noticed the numbers are dwindling already. So I think we're all feeling the begining of the down hill side, of our beloved hobby. SUCKS, but I think the party's almost over. Look at Nascar there numbers are also dwindling and there trying to find ways to boost the number of butts in the seats. I quess it's inevitable. That doesn't mean I have to like it! JTS 71 Mach1

Let me say this about that. When I showed the pictures of my car to my 21 y.o. niece and her boyfriend I got a bigger rise out of my 85 y.o. mother in law! So what's that telling you.

I am hoping my prediction is 100% WRONG but it is kind of fun to make one!



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#8
That is bad! On the part of the 21 year olds. Good on the mother-in-law!

I can guarantee that any one of my five kids will drool over your car. My second son just sent me some pictures he took Friday at the weekly car show in Milford, Ohio. My first son would have been there but he was moving.

My second daughter called today and mentioned going to the car show with son number two. They brought up the fact that when they get married they will enjoy it with their spouses. To which my son said to his sister, "If your husband likes this kind of thing". To which she responded, "If he wants to be my husband he will!"

There is hope but you are right Mike, the market will be considerably smaller.
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#9
Good Topic,
I believe the market will narrow, but dont think market values will fall as more kids get more tech minded, the amount of average people restoring these classics will reduce that I see now, and the interest could become more niech and even more expensive.

My 20 yo son and I were watching the Fast and Furious the other night together on tv, He a cnc data programmer (gen y I guess) and me just an old mechanic.We were arguing about the need for nos against cubes, [I was on the side of the cubes]. At the end of the film they pulled ou this old school dodge which stole the scene, My sons comment to this was that this film was made a little over 10yo now and thats a long time for him. He said those sporty jap cars allready look dated but that dodge doesnt have any age to it.
If my kids dont want my my car then Ill take it with me when I shuffle offIcon_tongue
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#10
Agree
Great comment starter... I've been saying this to folks for the last 10 years. I don't think all of the high dollar car owners got into these as investments but rather because they didn't get to own one of these beautys when they were younger. It is also probably a macho thing amongst some of the very high rollers to own a 1 of whatever. Like one of the 11 convertible 1971 Hemi Cuda's, those are nearly untouchable.
I'd drive one of these muscle cars everyday of my life if I weren't afraid of it getting ruined via rust or dents or ...
Yes, I believe they will come down in price - not to where they become cheap again but at least attainable to the masses.

THEN I'LL BUY THEM ALL & RULE THE WORLD !!! BUUWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
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